2025 Zero-Ozone Refrigerant Systems: Game-Changing Advances & Profit Hotspots Revealed

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Executive Summary: Zero-Ozone Refrigerants in 2025 and Beyond

Zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is entering a pivotal phase in 2025, driven by global regulatory mandates and rapid technological advancements. The ongoing implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which mandates the phasedown of high global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), is accelerating the transition toward refrigerants with both zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and ultra-low GWP. As a result, system manufacturers and end-users are investing substantially in the redesign and deployment of equipment compatible with new classes of refrigerants, such as hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), natural refrigerants like CO₂ (R-744) and ammonia (R-717), and advanced blends.

In 2025, leading industry players continue to scale up production of equipment and solutions engineered for zero-ozone impact. Daikin Industries and Carrier Global Corporation have each announced significant investment in the development and commercialization of chillers, heat pumps, and split systems optimized for refrigerants such as R-1234yf and R-290 (propane), both of which exhibit zero ODP and markedly reduced GWP. Parallel initiatives from Trane Technologies and Mitsubishi Electric focus on expanding product lines that utilize CO₂ and ammonia in both commercial and industrial refrigeration.

Recent data points to robust market momentum: By early 2025, the majority of new commercial refrigeration installations in Europe and Japan are utilizing zero-ozone refrigerants, a trend expected to accelerate in North America and emerging markets due to tightening F-gas regulations and strong end-user demand for sustainable solutions. For instance, Panasonic Corporation has reported sharp growth in demand for CO₂-based condensing units across food retail sectors, while Bitzer SE is expanding its compressor portfolio to encompass a wider range of low-GWP, zero-ozone applications.

Engineering challenges remain, particularly regarding flammability (notably for R-290 and R-1234yf), system redesign for higher pressures (CO₂), and the need for specialized training and certification. Nevertheless, ongoing collaboration among manufacturers, industry associations, and regulatory bodies is addressing these concerns through updated safety standards, component innovations, and robust supply chain adaptation.

Looking ahead, the outlook for zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is defined by further regulatory convergence, rapid adoption of next-generation refrigerants, and ongoing R&D investment. By the late 2020s, it is anticipated that zero-ozone refrigerants will dominate both new equipment sales and retrofit activity, with a strong focus on lifecycle climate performance and energy efficiency across the global HVACR sector.

Regulatory Pressures and Global Policy Shifts Accelerating Adoption

The global move toward zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is being rapidly propelled by a combination of regulatory pressures and international policy shifts, with significant milestones anticipated in 2025 and beyond. Central to this transition is the enforcement of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which mandates a phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—potent greenhouse gases with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) but high global warming potential (GWP). As of 2025, over 150 countries have ratified the amendment, triggering a global recalibration of refrigerant standards and accelerating industry investment in low-GWP, zero-ozone alternatives such as R-1234yf, R-1234ze, CO₂ (R-744), and natural refrigerants like ammonia and hydrocarbons.

Within the European Union, the F-Gas Regulation’s revised phase-down schedules are set to further restrict the placing on the market of equipment using high-GWP refrigerants. For 2025, newly manufactured systems in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning will be required to use refrigerants with GWP values well below 750, effectively excluding many traditional HFCs. These regulations have prompted leading OEMs, such as Daikin Industries and Carrier, to accelerate the development and deployment of systems engineered around zero-ozone, ultra-low-GWP refrigerants. Daikin, for example, has expanded its European portfolio with chillers and heat pumps using HFOs and natural refrigerants, while Carrier is actively rolling out systems featuring R-1234yf and CO₂ as primary working fluids.

In the United States, the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act is driving a similar trajectory. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize new rules in 2025 that will ban the use of high-GWP HFCs in key applications, further catalyzing the adoption of next-generation, zero-ozone refrigerant technologies. These policy developments are mirrored in Asia-Pacific, where countries such as Japan and South Korea are also tightening standards, backed by major players like Panasonic and Mitsubishi Electric who have introduced zero-ozone systems tailored for compliance.

Looking ahead, the next several years will see regulatory compliance deadlines converging globally, with harmonization efforts underway through organizations like ASHRAE to standardize safety, performance, and environmental criteria for new refrigerant systems. This coordinated global policy momentum is expected to accelerate not only the engineering and deployment of zero-ozone systems but also investments in workforce training, certification, and supply chain readiness—paving the way for mainstream adoption by 2030.

Key Players: Manufacturers, Innovators, and Industry Leaders

The global transition toward zero-ozone refrigerant systems has accelerated sharply as regulatory mandates tighten and sustainability drives reshape the cooling industry. By 2025, a select cohort of manufacturers and innovators are leading the charge, focusing on engineering solutions that eliminate ozone-depleting substances (ODS) from refrigeration and air conditioning systems. Key players include established multinational corporations, specialized equipment suppliers, and pioneering component developers.

Among the principal forces is Daikin Industries, recognized for its commitment to zero-ozone impact technologies. Daikin’s extensive product range leverages refrigerants such as R-32 and R-1234yf, which possess zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and significantly lower global warming potential (GWP) compared to legacy substances. The company’s continued investment in R&D and large-scale manufacturing infrastructure positions it as a cornerstone in the adoption of next-generation refrigerants.

Another pivotal player, Carrier, has aligned its engineering roadmap with global environmental protocols by integrating hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) and natural refrigerants into its air conditioning and refrigeration solutions. Carrier’s focus on system optimization, energy efficiency, and lifecycle emissions reduction cements its influence in both commercial and residential markets.

European manufacturers, notably BITZER, are instrumental in advancing compressor technologies compatible with zero-ODP refrigerants. BITZER’s portfolio encompasses compressors and condensing units tailored for low-GWP and zero-ODP applications, supporting decarbonization efforts in food retail, transport, and process cooling sectors.

Meanwhile, Trane Technologies is at the forefront of holistic system engineering, emphasizing modular chiller platforms and controls designed exclusively for zero-ozone refrigerants. Trane’s EcoWise™ portfolio exemplifies the integration of sustainable refrigerants with intelligent system management.

Component suppliers such as Emerson are also critical, providing controls, valves, and monitoring systems engineered for the safe and efficient operation of zero-ozone refrigerant circuits. Their technological advancements enhance reliability, leak detection, and compliance with evolving safety standards.

Looking forward, these industry leaders are not only setting benchmarks for compliance but also enabling broader market adoption through collaborative initiatives, open-source technology platforms, and cross-sector alliances. As regulatory frameworks such as the Kigali Amendment and regional F-gas regulations become more stringent, the influence and responsibility of these companies will continue to expand, shaping the future landscape of zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering.

Breakthroughs in Zero-Ozone Refrigerant Chemistry & Engineering

The engineering of zero-ozone refrigerant systems has undergone rapid transformation as the HVACR industry adapts to international mandates and shifting market priorities through 2025. The shift from hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to refrigerants with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP), such as hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), natural refrigerants, and advanced blends, is accelerating globally, driven by the Montreal Protocol’s Kigali Amendment and regional regulatory frameworks.

In 2025, leading manufacturers are scaling up the deployment of systems utilizing refrigerants like R-1234yf, R-1234ze, R-744 (CO2), and R-290 (propane), which all have zero ODP and varying levels of global warming potential (GWP). The transition is not limited to refrigerant replacement: it requires comprehensive redesigns in system engineering to optimize safety, efficiency, and reliability. For instance, R-744 systems operate at much higher pressures than HFC systems, necessitating robust component engineering, while R-290’s flammability requires enhanced safety protocols and leak mitigation strategies.

  • Automotive Sector: In mobile air conditioning, adoption of R-1234yf has become standard in new vehicles globally due to its zero ODP and ultra-low GWP. Major automakers and system suppliers, including DENSO and Sanden Holdings Corporation, are engineering next-generation HVAC modules with advanced leak detection and thermal management specifically for these new fluids.
  • Commercial Refrigeration: Supermarkets and food logistics are pivoting rapidly to CO2 transcritical systems, with companies like Carel Industries and Danfoss introducing high-efficiency electronic controllers, ejector technology, and heat reclaim units for optimized CO2 system performance.
  • Chillers and Heat Pumps: HFO-based blends (such as R-513A and R-514A) are being engineered into new centrifugal chillers and heat pumps, with Trane Technologies and Daikin Industries leading commercial rollouts and system integration.

The next few years are poised for further advances, including wider adoption of natural refrigerant systems in both industrial and commercial sectors, and the introduction of intelligent controls and IoT-enabled diagnostics to manage the unique operational profiles of zero-ozone refrigerants. Industry organizations such as ASHRAE and Eurovent are actively updating safety, performance, and installation standards to accommodate these new chemistries and system architectures, ensuring safe, reliable, and sustainable HVACR engineering for the near future.

Market Size, Growth Forecasts, and Regional Analysis (2025–2030)

The global market for zero-ozone refrigerant systems is poised for significant expansion from 2025 through 2030, driven by regulatory mandates targeting the complete phase-out of ozone-depleting substances, growing environmental awareness, and the rapid development of advanced refrigerant technologies. As nations enforce stricter guidelines under frameworks such as the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the adoption of zero-ozone depletion potential (ODP) refrigerants, including hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), natural refrigerants like CO2 (R-744), ammonia (R-717), and hydrocarbons (e.g., propane R-290), is accelerating across commercial, industrial, and residential sectors.

Leading manufacturers and industry alliances project robust market growth tied to regulatory compliance deadlines and the need for sustainable alternatives. For instance, Daikin Industries and Carrier have both highlighted increased investment in the development and commercialization of low-GWP, zero-ODP refrigerant systems to meet near-term demand. Danfoss also reports a surge in demand for natural refrigerant-compatible components, particularly in Europe and North America, where policy-driven retrofitting and new installations are peaking.

Regionally, Europe is anticipated to maintain its leadership as the largest market for zero-ozone refrigerant systems, underpinned by the European Union’s F-Gas Regulation and eco-design directives that enforce stricter GWP limits and incentivize the transition to next-generation refrigerants. The Asia-Pacific region—particularly China, Japan, and India—is expected to witness the fastest growth rate, as governments roll out national plans for accelerated HFC phase-down and encourage adoption of sustainable cooling solutions. The United States and Canada are following suit with federal and provincial initiatives that align with international commitments to reduce climate impact from refrigeration and air conditioning.

Data from manufacturers indicate that by 2030, the share of zero-ozone refrigerant systems in new commercial HVAC and refrigeration installations may exceed 80% in regulated markets, with the global installed base of legacy systems declining sharply as retrofit cycles and equipment replacement intensify. The outlook for the next five years includes increased R&D investment, supply chain scaling, and the introduction of innovative system architectures for supermarkets, cold chains, and residential applications, as confirmed by Emerson Electric and Trane Technologies.

  • Europe: Largest and most mature market, driven by strict F-Gas regulations.
  • Asia-Pacific: Highest growth rate, spurred by government programs and infrastructure expansion.
  • North America: Rapid adoption in commercial and public sectors, supported by regulatory and incentive frameworks.

In summary, the market for zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is set for pronounced growth and regional differentiation through 2030, propelled by policy, technological innovation, and global sustainability imperatives.

The global shift toward zero-ozone refrigerant systems is driving significant changes across the supply chain, from sourcing raw materials to manufacturing processes and distribution strategies. In 2025 and the coming years, these shifts are influenced by regulatory mandates, technological advancements, and evolving market preferences that prioritize environmental sustainability.

On the sourcing front, manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing refrigerants with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP), such as hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) and natural refrigerants like CO2 (R744) and ammonia (R717). Key suppliers are investing in scaling up the production of these alternatives to meet rising global demand, particularly as developed markets implement tighter restrictions on legacy hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). For example, Honeywell and Chemours have announced major capacity expansions for HFO production, aiming to secure a stable supply chain and address anticipated shortages as adoption accelerates.

Manufacturing processes are also undergoing transformation. Equipment producers are retooling assembly lines and redesigning system architectures to accommodate new refrigerant chemistries, which may require different materials or components to ensure compatibility and safety. This shift involves close collaboration with component suppliers, such as compressor and heat exchanger manufacturers, to develop optimized solutions for zero-ozone systems. For instance, Danfoss has expanded its portfolio to support CO2 and HFO applications, while Emerson is deploying new compressor technologies tailored for alternative refrigerants.

Distribution networks are adapting to new logistical requirements, particularly regarding handling and storage of refrigerants with distinct properties. The rollout of zero-ozone refrigerants often necessitates specialized training for technicians and distributors to ensure safe transport and system charging. Companies are responding by expanding cold-chain infrastructure and offering certification programs. For example, Trane Technologies has launched initiatives to upskill contractors and partners in handling next-generation refrigerants, emphasizing safe and efficient installation.

Looking ahead, supply chain resilience will be a central focus as markets navigate potential bottlenecks related to raw material availability, regulatory compliance, and skilled labor shortages. Industry bodies such as ASHRAE are working on updated standards to streamline adoption and facilitate global harmonization. As zero-ozone refrigerant systems become the norm, companies that invest early in robust supply chain partnerships and advanced manufacturing capabilities are expected to gain a competitive edge in the evolving HVACR landscape.

Commercial, Residential, and Industrial Applications: New Use Cases

Zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is rapidly advancing as industries and regulators accelerate the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances, such as R-22 and other high-ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) refrigerants. In 2025, a confluence of legislative mandates, technological innovation, and market demand is fueling the deployment of zero-ozone refrigerant solutions across commercial, residential, and industrial sectors.

A key driver is the continued enforcement of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which requires a global phasedown of HFCs—many of which, while ozone-safe, have high global warming potential (GWP). This has intensified the search for refrigerants with both zero-ozone depletion and ultra-low GWP. Major manufacturers, including Daikin Industries, Carrier, and Trane Technologies, have introduced new lines of air conditioning and refrigeration systems optimized for low-GWP, zero-ODP refrigerants such as R-32, R-1234yf, and natural refrigerants like CO2 (R-744) and hydrocarbons (e.g., propane, R-290).

In the commercial sector, supermarkets and cold storage facilities are leading adopters of transcritical CO2 (R-744) refrigeration systems. These solutions entirely eliminate ozone-depleting substances and are now being deployed in new builds and retrofit projects. For instance, Emerson Electric Co. and Bitzer have expanded their portfolios for CO2 compressor technologies, supporting supermarkets in North America and Europe to meet new regulatory standards and corporate sustainability targets.

Residential applications are also experiencing significant progress. Split-system air conditioners and heat pumps using R-32 are becoming more commonplace in Asia and Europe, where both regulatory pressure and consumer demand for sustainable products are high. Companies like Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic have prioritized inverter-driven, R-32-based solutions for new housing developments and replacement markets, emphasizing improved energy efficiency alongside zero-ozone depletion.

Industrial refrigeration has traditionally relied on high-capacity, legacy refrigerants, but 2025 sees accelerated adoption of ammonia (R-717) and CO2 systems in food processing, pharmaceuticals, and chemical manufacturing. GEA Group and Johnson Controls are among the leaders engineering modular, safe, and automated zero-ozone solutions tailored for large-scale facilities. Ammonia, while toxic in high concentrations, offers both zero ODP and very low GWP, making it an attractive choice when proper safety measures are integrated.

Looking ahead, adoption rates are expected to rise as cost parity with traditional systems improves, and as regulatory timelines for legacy refrigerant bans approach in the U.S., EU, and Asia-Pacific. The next few years will likely see broader deployment of advanced controls and leak detection, further supporting safe, large-scale use of zero-ozone refrigerant technologies across sectors.

Competitive Landscape: Partnerships, M&A, and Startups to Watch

The competitive landscape in zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is rapidly evolving as global regulatory mandates—such as the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol—drive the industry toward low global warming potential (GWP) and zero-ozone depletion potential (ODP) solutions. In 2025 and the ensuing years, significant activity is expected in strategic partnerships, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and the emergence of innovative startups focused on next-generation refrigerant technologies.

Major incumbents are consolidating their positions through partnerships and targeted acquisitions. For example, Daikin Industries, Ltd. has continued its strategic investments in R&D and collaborative initiatives to accelerate the global deployment of HFO (hydrofluoroolefin) and natural refrigerant systems, which both feature zero ODP. Similarly, Carrier Global Corporation has prioritized partnerships with component suppliers and system integrators to develop and market chillers, heat pumps, and commercial air conditioning units utilizing zero-ozone refrigerants such as R-1234ze and R-514A. The company has also expanded its acquisition activities in Europe, where regulatory pressure is highest, to bolster its portfolio of environmentally advanced HVAC solutions.

M&A activity has also been notable among European and North American players aiming to scale zero-ozone refrigerant technologies. Trane Technologies made headlines with the acquisition of several regional HVAC specialists with proprietary low-GWP system designs, enhancing its ability to serve commercial and industrial customers transitioning away from legacy HFCs. Meanwhile, Bosch has deepened its investments in startups specializing in CO2 (R-744) and hydrocarbon-based systems, reflecting a broader industry pivot toward natural refrigerants.

The startup ecosystem in this sector is vibrant, with several companies gaining attention for disruptive technologies. Firms such as Emerson are collaborating with early-stage ventures to integrate advanced sensors and controls that optimize the efficiency and safety of low-GWP refrigerant systems. Additionally, new entrants focused on modular, low-charge ammonia systems and innovative heat pump designs are attracting venture investment, particularly in regions with aggressive decarbonization targets.

Looking ahead to the next several years, the competitive landscape is expected to intensify as OEMs, suppliers, and startups race to commercialize scalable, zero-ozone solutions that also align with net-zero climate goals. Strategic alliances and M&A will likely accelerate, especially as technology validation and regulatory approvals become critical milestones for market entry and expansion.

Challenges: Technical Barriers, Cost, and Safety Considerations

The transition to zero-ozone refrigerant systems, principally those using substances with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP), such as hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), natural refrigerants (CO2, ammonia, hydrocarbons), and certain hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), presents a complex set of challenges for engineers and manufacturers in 2025 and the near future. These hurdles fall into three main categories: technical barriers, cost implications, and safety considerations.

Technical Barriers: Retrofitting existing refrigeration and air-conditioning infrastructure to accommodate zero-ozone refrigerants remains a significant obstacle. Many legacy systems were designed for hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) or high-global warming potential (GWP) HFCs, which possess different thermodynamic and chemical properties compared to zero-ozone alternatives. For example, natural refrigerants like CO2 operate at much higher pressures, necessitating robust system redesigns and specialized components. Ammonia, while efficient, is corrosive to copper and brass, materials still prevalent in many installations. Furthermore, the lower volumetric cooling capacity of some low-GWP refrigerants, such as hydrocarbons, often requires larger compressors or heat exchangers, affecting overall system footprint and integration complexity. Companies such as Danfoss and Emerson Electric are actively developing components and controls tailored for these demanding requirements.

Cost Implications: The shift toward zero-ozone refrigerants is associated with higher initial costs. System redesign, component upgrades, and the necessity for new safety systems (e.g., leak detection, ventilation) all contribute to increased capital expenditures. While some natural refrigerants like propane are inexpensive, the specialized equipment and engineering expertise required for safe deployment can offset these savings. Additionally, the availability and price volatility of new refrigerants, particularly HFOs, remain issues as global production scales up. Several manufacturers, including Daikin Industries and Carrier Global Corporation, have noted that economies of scale and regulatory clarity will be crucial to bringing down costs over the next several years.

  • Safety Considerations: Zero-ozone refrigerants, especially hydrocarbons (e.g., propane, isobutane), are classified as flammable or mildly flammable, requiring rigorous safety protocols. Ammonia is both toxic and flammable, mandating strict containment and monitoring. CO2 poses high-pressure risks. These characteristics necessitate advanced leak detection, ventilation, and emergency shutoff systems, which add complexity and cost. International standards (such as ISO 5149 and EN 378) are continually being revised to address these new risks, with organizations like Linde plc and Trane Technologies contributing to safe system design and training for technicians.

Looking forward, the industry must balance sustainability goals with engineering practicality. While regulatory pressure (e.g., the Kigali Amendment and regional phase-downs) accelerates adoption, overcoming these technical, cost, and safety barriers will require continued innovation and collaboration across the global HVACR supply chain in the coming years.

Future Outlook: Next-Gen Solutions and Strategic Recommendations

As the global HVAC&R (Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration) sector approaches 2025, zero-ozone refrigerant systems are poised for transformative growth, driven by regulatory mandates and technological innovation. The phase-out of ozone-depleting substances, in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and subsequent Kigali Amendment, has catalyzed a rapid transition toward refrigerants with zero ozone depletion potential (ODP), such as hydrocarbons (R290, R600a), HFOs (hydrofluoroolefins), and natural refrigerants including CO2 (R744) and ammonia (R717).

Major manufacturers have accelerated the commercialization of zero-ODP refrigerant technologies. For instance, Daikin Industries, Ltd. and Carrier Global Corporation continue to invest in R&D to improve the efficiency and safety profile of next-generation refrigerant systems, with a particular focus on mildly flammable A2L refrigerants and low global warming potential (GWP) HFO blends. In 2024, Trane Technologies announced new chiller and heat pump platforms optimized for R1234ze(E) and R454B, reflecting the industry’s commitment to zero-ozone and ultra-low GWP solutions.

The regulatory landscape will intensify in 2025 and beyond. Advanced economies, including the European Union, United States, and Japan, are enacting stricter limits on the GWP of refrigerants for both new and retrofit systems. The European Union’s F-Gas Regulation revision, for example, will further restrict high-GWP HFCs, accelerating the adoption of zero-ozone refrigerants across commercial and industrial applications. This is mirrored in the U.S. by the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, which mandates a significant phasedown of HFCs, compelling the transition to next-generation, environmentally benign alternatives.

Looking ahead, system engineering will increasingly emphasize holistic optimization—balancing energy efficiency, lifecycle cost, and safety. Emerging innovations include integrated leak detection technologies, advanced heat exchanger designs, and intelligent controls for minimizing refrigerant charge and enhancing system reliability. Strategic partnerships between OEMs, component suppliers, and end-users are crucial to accelerate large-scale adoption and address training needs for flammable or high-pressure refrigerants.

Between 2025 and the end of the decade, the outlook for zero-ozone refrigerant systems engineering is defined by both opportunity and challenge: the industry must navigate evolving safety standards, supply chain adaptation, and the need for global harmonization of regulations. Leading companies such as Panasonic Corporation and Bitzer SE are already expanding their portfolios with systems engineered for zero-ODP refrigerants, positioning themselves at the forefront of the transition. To remain competitive and compliant, stakeholders should prioritize investment in R&D, workforce training, and cross-border collaboration, ensuring readiness for the rapidly approaching zero-ozone future.

Sources & References

ByQuinn Parker

Quinn Parker is a distinguished author and thought leader specializing in new technologies and financial technology (fintech). With a Master’s degree in Digital Innovation from the prestigious University of Arizona, Quinn combines a strong academic foundation with extensive industry experience. Previously, Quinn served as a senior analyst at Ophelia Corp, where she focused on emerging tech trends and their implications for the financial sector. Through her writings, Quinn aims to illuminate the complex relationship between technology and finance, offering insightful analysis and forward-thinking perspectives. Her work has been featured in top publications, establishing her as a credible voice in the rapidly evolving fintech landscape.

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